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A service of. While the impact of new policies will go a long way in determining which sectors will benefit, or not, from the new administration, equity capital market participants are bracing for the potential near-term effects of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This comes as Chair Jerome Powell teased a potential cut following the most recent FOMC meeting, citing moderating inflation and reasonable economic growth.
The move could present a weeks-long window for a revival in issuance ahead of an expected slowdown in the run-up to the November election. The view was echoed by other bankers who said that if the Fed cuts rates to a level in September that meets market expectations, there will be an open capital markets window both for IPOs and follow-ons.
The view emerged as volatility is likely to bite into both issuer opportunism and investor appetite, while many other variables are still affecting the upcoming race that cannot yet be digested entirely by the market. History still shows that elections rarely pull the rug out from under the equity capital markets. According to an analysis of election years, ECM volumes from September to December have shown mixed performances, according to Dealogic data.
The highest volume ever recorded came in , with USD In the election, which saw Donald Trump ascend to the presidency, deal volume in the run-up to the election was lower, at USD Finally, in the months ahead and following the elections in the Obama years, and , volumes hit USD Another managing director at a US bank said that it is too hard to fathom issuance tendencies in these periods of both high uncertainty and rising volatility.
