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In the days and weeks after presidential election results come in, commentators attempting to figure out what happened with voter demographics are often in a fog — forced to rely on unreliable exit polls. More rigorous analysis simply takes longer. But this information can be supplemented with precinct-level vote results, census information, and survey findings. The Catalist authors put all this together to estimate how different demographics voted.
Some of their general findings about what changed since For instance, it drives home the fact that the non-college white population, while declining as a share of the electorate, remains quite large they were about 44 percent of all voters in , and Trump won 63 percent of them. And though Biden performed worse among Black voters than Clinton or Obama, he still won about 90 percent of that group. One note here is that, for the sake of allowing easy year-to-year comparisons, these percentages are calculated by looking only at votes cast for either the Democratic or Republican nominees, rather than for third-party candidates.
Much attention has been paid to the shift of white college-educated voters toward Biden and Latino voters toward Trump in , which makes sense — as a table from Catalist shows, those were particularly dramatic shifts. But Democrats did not continue to hemorrhage these voters in — Biden actually improved slightly, winning 37 percent of them. First, white non-college voters continue to make up a very large chunk of the electorate.
Catalist estimates that their share of the electorate has been shrinking, but they still were 44 percent of all voters in And second, they make up an even larger share of the electorate in some key swing states. If he had won, say, 34 percent of them instead of the 37 percent he did win, he very well might not be president right now. Furthermore, the shorthand of punditry often says Democrats win because of a coalition of nonwhite and college-educated white voters. But the below chart makes the point that non-college whites actually still make up an estimated 32 percent of overall votes cast for Biden.
