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Urban mobility New thinking required Bank stress tests How will the sector shape up? Seeking to serve Luxembourg as an attractive center for Islamic Finance in Europe, the IFBL, in collaboration with the ICMA Centre, University of Reading, offers a series of training modules, designed for professionals who want to have a clear understanding of this sector, its products, services, challenges and opportunities.
Banks need to be strong enough to resist collapse, and, ideally, be equipped with enough capital to enable a relatively orderly bankruptcy if the worst does happen. Publicly available stress tests are a flawed idea.
The regulators either run credible tests, which risk causing investor flight, or they whitewash. The real test will come when, as seems increasingly likely, one or more of the peripheral EU economies will be obliged to part-default on their debt. With parent companies squeezed by both Basel III and debt downgrades, this will lead to greater calls on capital held by Luxembourg branches of international groups.
To this, one can factor in the prospect of skinny earnings on interest rate margins for some years to come. At the moment, banks still have bonds on their books paying a decent coupon, but these are set to expire over the next few years. Most earnings will then need to come from commission income. For banks working with the fund sector, this should be fine as the industry looks set to continue to boom, but for wealth management, competition for juicy customer deposits will only increase.
